Where Consumers Are Cutting and Spending

It's no secret that times are tough. And, as more people are being laid off or seeing their hours reduced, we should watch where consumers are cutting back and where they are still willing to spend.

Gadgets and Games Takes a Hit

According to a recent survey by Forrester Research, more than 60 percent of respondents said they are less likely to buy a hand-held video player, a satellite radio, a smart phone, a video game console or a portable GPS. They say gadgets in particular are most likely to be hit.

"It doesn't matter which category you are talking about -- people are evaluating potential purchases with a careful eye," said Charles Golvin, an analyst with Forrester Research, which released results Monday of survey of 5,109 U.S. adults.

Internet and Cable Still Strong

But, it's not all bad news. 7 percent of the respondents to Forrester said they were more likely to buy a laptop or HDTV, regardless of the economy. And very few people are planning to cut back on services such as the Internet, their mobile phone or cable television. (I, myself, have been "planning" to drop HBO from my cable for a few months now, but I haven't quite made the call just yet. And with the new season of Conchords here, it's even less likely that I will anytime soon!)

Six of seven adults said they would not change their Internet service or may upgrade it, despite economic worries. Three of four said they wouldn't change or might upgrade their mobile phone service. One of three was strongly committed to keeping and possibly adding premium cable channels or HD television.

People Still Using Land Lines

This one really surpised me. Only 5 percent of people planned to cancel their land lines, roughly the same percent who were going cell-phone-only before the banks and investment firms started failing this Fall.

"Communication services are a must-have in a recession," the report released Monday stated. However, Golvin cautioned that things could change if the economy worsens. Someone who is laid off may choose to pay for health insurance before taking care of the cable bill. For now, however, consumers are finding value in their cable and Internet services. "For service providers, there is some good news," Golvin said.

Liquor Still Flowing

While fewer people are eating out, there are some indications that booze is still a priority for consumers. The CDC particpated in a study revealing that alcohol consumption increases during times of economic stress -- a rather (if you'll forgive the pun) sobering thought.

New Administration Drives Some Consumer Confidence

Some reports indicate that consumer attitudes are already shifting with the swearing in of President Obama. eBillme, an online spending index examining quarterly trends along with Javelin Research, polled 1,600 consumers to measure projected online spending.

50 percent of consumers reported they will have more confidence in the economy while more than 1 in 4 feel more comfortable increasing their everyday spending now that the new administration has taken over.

With a major U.S. gift-giving holiday approaching, retailers may actually see some relief as 18 percent of consumers told Javelin they plan to spend more this Valentine's Day as compared to last. And, 18 percent are planning to make their Valentine’s Day purchases online this year.

If this truly represents consumer attitudes, it could bring a great sigh of relief to retailers who have been trying to adjust their inventories in response to slowdowns in consumer spending.

Conflicting Reports Continue

With Reuters reporting U.S. consumer confidence at a near-record low and Forbes and MarketWatch reporting a slight uptick, it's hard to know which source to trust. But, I am a strong believer in the "perception is reality" approach to our economy. I'm not suggesting we can solve all of our problems with positive thinking ... I haven't gone off the deep end just yet. But, I do believe consumer confidence will grow as people begin to feel that action is being taken and we are in a forward motion.

Around this time last year, I blogged about the economy and how savvy marketers could turn the economy woes into PR gold ala the movie Mr. Mom. What I said then still rings true. Cutting prices is certainly an alternative for retailers. I know I've received at least a dozen texts and emails from friends telling me about all kinds of deals over the past couple of months. But, even more important than cutting prices, is simply finding creative ways to demonstrate that sense of "we're all in this together." The more brands can align themselves with their customers' needs and concerns, the more they can motivate them to take action and ultimately create loyalty that will pay off in the long run.

-- my two cents

Barrack Obama: The Social Media President

Yesterday, the 44th U.S. President was sworn in. As I was watching the celebration with some friends, we agreed that Mr. Obama is truly a 21st Century President: we are a global society and he is a global man. He has familial ties to Kenya, Indonesia, and China. Here at home, he has personal ties to Hawaiian culture, African-American culture, the Harvard-elite, urban Chicago and rural Kansas landscapes. If it is indeed a small world after all, no one embodies that better than Barrack Obama.

Here in this blog, we've talked a bit about President Obama's use of social media during the campaign. And, yesterday, as my friends debated over the security of his Blackberry, we discussed whether or not he would make good on his promise for a transparent government that employed Blogs and RSS feeds and wikis and streaming vids and forums. Less than an hour after that conversation, my good friend Patrick called to tell me that the President's new media director published his first blog post.

Because Obama was so plugged in as a candidate, the expectation is incredibly high for his uses of social media as the President. In his first YouTube video as President-elect, he received some criticism for having initially disabled the comments section. Of course, Evan Ratliff of Wired Magazine pointed out why the President's crew may have opted for no comments: Obama's transition team had good reasons for disabling responses. For starters, YouTube comments are typically the intellectual equivalent of truck-stop graffiti. (When the team belatedly allowed comments a couple of weeks later, the site was flooded with insights like "USA susks.")

But, as Ratliff also pointed out, Dan Froomkin of the Niemen Watchdog Journalism Project and The Washington Post summed up expectations in a blog post calling for Obama to embrace "wiki culture" in which "major policy proposals have public collaborative workspaces."

It will be interesting to see how this administration continues to employ social media tools to connect with American and global citizens. I wonder if we'll see more "push" interactions than "pull" now that he's taken office. I know President Obama has said he wants to hear everyone's ideas; everyone's concerns. I was watching a biography on FDR last night and in it, they talked about how Eleanor Roosevelt made it her job to get out among American citizens and hear their stories. She sent memos back to to her husband with the stories she felt he needed to hear. The memos were placed in a basket next to his bed the staff called the Eleanor Basket. It quickly piled up to the point where President Roosevelt struck a deal with his wife: three memos a day. "Keep it to three, Eleanor, and I promise I will read every one of them and will act upon them by morning" was his quote.

When I engage in social media campaigns for my clients, I generally limit core target audiences to just three in order to set measurable goals. I cannot begin to imagine the daunting task of engaging an entire nation - indeed the world - in a meaningful two-way political conversation today, even with all of our SM tools. Not to mention the challenge in creating a single unified voice of government to spread the right messages in the right way.

Just to give you a little perspective, consider these statistics (courtesy of Wired):

550,000 responses came in from supporters after Obama adviser David Plouffe requested feedback about the campaign.

1 million people viewed the President-elect Obama's first YouTube address in four hours.

150,000+ subscribers follow Obama's Twitter feed. (No tweets have been posted by Obama staffers since the election.)

500+ PDFs submitted by third parties for viewing and public comment are available on Change.gov.

3,701 comments on health care were submitted online to secretary of health and human services designate Tom Daschle.

20.3 million people have visited President Obama's YouTube channel since its September 2006 launch.

24,000 individual Web sites are operated by the US government -- and none with a single voice or purpose.

In his first Blog post since the President's inauguration, the administration's Director of New Media, Macon Phillips once again repeated President Obama's dedication to leading a transparent government dependent upon the participation of and communication with all American citizens. Certainly, it seems to be that if anyone can create this kind of two-way conversation, President Obama can. In the meantime, it will be fascinating to watch how this administration uses social media. And, consider in your next SM new business pitch, if all else fails, you can tell the prospective client "if social media is good enough for the President..."

-- my two cents

Social Media's Role in US Airways Crash

It seems a lot of folks are talking about the role social media played in yesterday's US Airways Flight 1549 landing in the Hudson River. I first learned about the events through a Twitter breaking news feed and like most of the world, I was riveted as I watched the heroic actions of the pilot, crew, passengers and the rescue workers and bystanders who plunged into the icy water to help.

I mentioned in my 09 predictions that SM would play a larger role in crisis communications and the way things went down yesterday, I feel confident in that statement. (Photographs showing the emergency landing began popping up on Facebook, Twitter and Tumblr long before national news agencies picked up the story; and even more time went by before US Airways joined the conversation). So, let's take a quick second to review how social media broke the story and what industry leaders are saying about it.

The first recorded image appeared on TwitPic at 3:28 p.m. and was posted by Janis Krums - who in true Andy Warhol fashion has become a bit of a celebrity because of it, making the rounds on CNN, GMA, MSNBC and more. Within minutes of Krums' upload, his photo started appearing on blogs and Twitter lit up as people passed the image around.

CNN picked up the story at 4:06 p.m.

US Airways didn't use its official Twitter account until 4:29 p.m., almost an hour after the crash. And it only posted a link to coverage on MSNBC.

The New York Times had a tweet account up by 5:02 p.m. which it continued to update throughout the event. By now, media all over the world covered the event, most reprinting images from Twitter.

Incidentally, US Airways didn't issue an official statement from CEO Doug Parker until 6:40 p.m.

Of course, in this age of "my media is better than your media," twitterers quickly began congratulating each other for breaking the story. As of this writing, there are more than 1,500 tweets about how social media is faster (and therefore better) than traditional news.

But, others disagree. "I'm sure people will say Twitter provided all the news on Hudson River crash, but I found little info there while TV was loaded," wrote online media vet Neil Budde, founding editor and publisher of The Wall Street Journal Online and now president of news aggregation site DailyMe.com.

"To those [that think] soc med (twitter) has killed trad. media: Twitter can't write this piece on crash [survivors]," wrote John Sternal, a public relations consultant, pointing to a local news story about one of the plane's lucky passengers.

I certainly agree that traditional media was able to dive deeper into the story than certainly Twitter and even a lot of bloggers, but still, a little credit is due here, folks. For me the topper came when CNN tossed to a reporter to give some background on the pilot - and she cited his Linked In profile!

The simple fact is social media tools are playing an increasingly important role is crisis comms and hopefully, we'll see more examples of traditional and new media working together for breaking news, especially as PR pros bring the two mediums together in their strategic planning.

In the meantime, congratulations to all of the passengers, the pilot and crew of US Airways Flight 1549 as well as the many folks who jumped in to help.

-- my two cents

CisionBlog Launches to Share Media Insights

Some news from Cision today: the media directory has launched CisionBlog, an interactive forum dedicated to "Helping Communications Professionals Navigate the Evolving Media Landscape."

According to the company's press release, the blog will initially "focus on social media will expand in 2009 to feature guest writers from Cision who will share their insights into public relations media research, media contact, news distribution, media monitoring and media measurement and analysis in the print, broadcast and online worlds."

Cision, of course, recently added social media monitoring to their services, which as I understand it, is really just a rebrand of Radian6 - so you may want to check out both in terms of pricing. I actually haven't used it yet as I tend to use serph and keotag and other SM search engines to follow the buzz. (It takes longer to be sure, but it's free). So, if you've taken Cision's SM monitoring out for a spin, let me know what you think.

In the meantime, I will keep an eye on CisionBlog and will let you know my thoughts as it grows. So far, it seems to have pretty useful content, just be wary of the ever-present sales pitches for Cision services.

-- my two cents

Yet Another 2009 Social Media Trends List

With a new year, there is one thing we can always count on: trends lists. They are everywhere right now, particularly with regard to social media. Everyone seems to have their own ideas about where SM is headed in 09 and since I have never been without an opinion myself, I figured I might as well join the fray. So, here is one more social media forecast for 09.

Smaller is Better. This is going to be the greatest change we will see across the board in social media. You've all heard my cafeteria analogy before: social media is like the high school cafeteria where everyone gathers together according to shared interests. Well, the lunch room that is Web 2.0 is too big. People are going to seek out smaller and smaller places to meet, connect and share online. We'll see more niche social networks, more active groups within the larger existing networks, more wikis and specialized and compartmentalized forums around targeted topics.

Relevant is the Watchword. As such, smaller audiences will also be sought out. The demand for millions of site visitors is going to trend off toward more relevant connections. Instead of going after 10 million views from all walks of life, the aim will be for 100,000 significant and useful connections. In other words, the quality of the return will take precedence over the quantity.

Better Customer Insights. As more people begin to truly grasp how to use social media tools for consumer research, marketers will gain a more complete and accurate profile of their target audiences and will therefore be able to deliver more relevant results. I will be holding a seminar on this topic very soon, so more to come with that announcement. But, suffice it to say, communications professionals will no longer rely on the skewed results of focus groups to truly identify the who, what, where and why behind their target audiences. Instead, they will turn to the conversations happening within SM channels.

Mobile Will Go Global. We're going to see more mobile-driven campaigns, especially as nearly every phone manufacturer releases its own version of the iPhone complete with new cross-promotional apps. My advice is to start forming alliances now with mobile providers to bundle your brand's apps in the latest device launches.

Live Will Thrive. I've heard many industry leaders make this claim recently, so this one is not so much my prediction as it seems to be the general thinking all around: more live content. The success of Twitter has demonstrated that our desire for instant gratification is insatiable and I agree with my colleagues that we are going to see more apps developed to deliver live interactions online. I also predict an increase in social gaming as more multi-player gaming apps are introduced online.

Increased Transparency. We've all seen what happens when brands attempt to infiltrate social media or overtly market to audiences. I think most brands have learned their lesson and we are going to see more transparency in corporate blogging and social media marketing as more execs grasp the dogma of Web 2.0. (I will also be holding a workshop discussing the changing dogma of social media, so more to come on this as well!)

Crisis Impact. Anyone who has ever dealt with a product recall or other brand crisis knows the faster you can connect with your customers, the better the end result. And, certainly we've all seen reporting on crises change with iReport, Twitter, YouTube, etc. In 09, we're going to see more marketers incorporate social media tools in their crisis communications planning to ensure the right message gets out to the right people in the right way.

Brand-Sponsored Series. As television viewing continues to decline, brands are going to put more money and (hopefully) creativity into sponsored web series where brands are integrated into the plot. What began with BMW Films in 2001 has morphed into a popular and profitable YouTube phenomenon. The most well known of these right now is probably the HBO Labs / Facebook series Hooking Up. It's a silly college romp in which characters meet, flirt, fight, hook up and break up through ... you guessed it ... Facebook. (Instead of casting trained actors, they opted for some of YouTube's most famous faces, including my personal favorite "sxephil" aka Phil DeFranco.) The Hooking Up site includes all the right community functions like forums, vlogs, bonus vids channel tie-ins, merchandise and, of course, Facebook apps.

The bottom line is 2009 is going to be the year of SM campaigns. We're going to see greater adoption of the principles of SM and more money flowing toward budgets. And, as more money is applied to SM thinking, we'll see an explosion of new tools and tactics - some will change the way we communicate; others will miss the mark entirely. So, stay sharp out there, folks and remember it's the "social" part that matters most.

-- my two cents